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Archive for the ‘Implied volatility’ Category

Volatility Arbitrage Indices – A Primer

12 Jan

Article by: Keith Loggie
Published by: Standard & Poor’s
Date: Jul 2008

“In broad terms, volatility arbitrage can be used to describe trading strategies based on the
difference in volatility between related assets, for instance the implied volatility of two
options based on the same underlying asset. However, the term is most commonly used
to describe strategies that take advantage of the difference between the forecasted future
volatility of an asset and the implied volatility of options based on that asset. This
strategy is often implemented through a delta neutral portfolio consisting of an option and
its underlying asset. The return on such a portfolio will be based not on the future returns
of the underlying asset but rather on the volatility of its future price movements. Buying
an option and selling the underlying results in a long volatility position, while selling an
option and buying the underlying results in a short volatility position. A long volatility
position will be profitable to the extent that the realized volatility on the underlying is
ultimately higher than the implied volatility on the option at the time of the trade.”

Full article (PDF): Link

 

Lack of liquidity means a comeback for vol swaps

04 Jan

Article by: Matt Cameron
Published by: Risk magazine
Date: 28 Jul 2009

“Dynamic replication of the payoff of volatility swaps on single stocks in illiquid markets is cheaper and easier than replicating variance swaps payoffs, dealers say.

“Activity in variance swaps has died down after volatility spiked in late 2008, causing many dealers to experience hefty losses, particularly in single stocks. The resulting pull-back has spurred dealers to search for other ways to offer volatility trades where clients are not required to delta-hedge options. Dealers such as BNP Paribas are actively pushing volatility swaps as a viable alternative.”

Full article: Link

 
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Posted in Implied volatility, Trading ideas

 

A hands on approach to volatility trading

26 Dec

Article by: Matt Larsen
Published by: Futures Magazine
Date: Sep 2004

“Volatility can make or break a trader. Learning how to read this important market statistic can give you a real edge. Here’s how to incorporate the Volatility Index, or Vix, into your trading approach.

“The Volatility Index (Vix) is a useful tool in accurately reflecting upcoming changes in the intermediate trend. Unfortunately, most traders do not understand how to implement this tool successfully. This article takes a common sense approach toward successfully using the Vix to add to your bottom line.

“The Vix measures market volatility and is often referred to as the “investor fear gauge.” It works because it is inversely correlated, meaning as the S&P 500 moves down in price, the Vix (generally) moves higher. Without spending time on the academics of it, the equation for the Vix calculates volatility by averaging weighted prices of out-of-the-money put and call options.”

Full article: Link

 
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Posted in Implied volatility, Trading ideas

 

The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets

21 Dec

Article by: Andrew Szakmary, Evren Ors, Jin Kyoung Kim, Wallace N. Davidson III
Published by: Elsevier, Journal of Banking and Finance
Date: 19 Apr 2002

“Using data from 35 futures options markets from eight separate exchanges, we test how well the implied volatilities (IVs) embedded in option prices predict subsequently realized volatility (RV) in the underlying futures. We find that for this broad array of futures options, IV performs well in a relative sense. For a large majority of the commodities studied, the implieds outperform historical volatility (HV) as a predictor of the subsequently RV in the underlying futures prices over the remaining life of the option. Indeed, in most markets examined, regardless of whether it is modeled as a simple moving average or in a GARCH framework, HV contains no economically significant predictive information beyond what is already incorporated in IV. These findings add to previous research that has focused on currency and crude oil futures by extending the analysis into a very broad array of contracts and exchanges. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that futures options markets in general, with their minimal trading frictions, are efficient.”

Full article (PDF): Link

 
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Posted in Implied volatility, Realized volatility

 
 
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