Article by: Andrew Szakmary, Evren Ors, Jin Kyoung Kim, Wallace N. Davidson III
Published by: Elsevier, Journal of Banking and Finance
Date: 19 Apr 2002
“Using data from 35 futures options markets from eight separate exchanges, we test how well the implied volatilities (IVs) embedded in option prices predict subsequently realized volatility (RV) in the underlying futures. We find that for this broad array of futures options, IV performs well in a relative sense. For a large majority of the commodities studied, the implieds outperform historical volatility (HV) as a predictor of the subsequently RV in the underlying futures prices over the remaining life of the option. Indeed, in most markets examined, regardless of whether it is modeled as a simple moving average or in a GARCH framework, HV contains no economically significant predictive information beyond what is already incorporated in IV. These findings add to previous research that has focused on currency and crude oil futures by extending the analysis into a very broad array of contracts and exchanges. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that futures options markets in general, with their minimal trading frictions, are efficient.”
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