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Variance Risk Premiums

25 Jul 2011

Article by: Peter Carr, Liuren Wu
Published by: Review of Financial Studies
Date: 2008

“We propose a direct and robust method for quantifying the variance risk premium on
financial assets. We show that the risk-neutral expected value of return variance, also
known as the variance swap rate, is well approximated by the value of a particular portfolio
of options.We propose to use the difference between the realized variance and this synthetic
variance swap rate to quantify the variance risk premium. Using a large options data set,
we synthesize variance swap rates and investigate the historical behavior of variance risk
premiums on five stock indexes and 35 individual stocks.”

Full article (PDF): Link

 
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Posted in Implied volatility, Realized volatility

 

No news is good news: An asymmetric model of changing volatility

18 Jul 2011

Article by: John Y. Campbell, Ludger Hentschel
Published by: Journal of Financial Eronomics
Date: Mar 1992

“It seems plausible that an increase in stock market volatility raises required stock returns, and thus
lowers stock prices. We develop a formal model of this volatility feedback effect using a simple model
of changing variance (a quadratic generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic, or
QGARCH, model). Our model is asymmetric and helps to explain the negative skewness and excess
kurtosis of U.S. monthly and daily stock returns over the period 1926-88. We find that volatility
feedback normally has little effect on returns, but it can be important during periods of high
volatility.”

Full article (PDF): Link

 
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Posted in Trading ideas

 

Volatility Derivatives

10 Jul 2011

Article by: Peter Carr, Roger Lee
Published by: New York University
Date: 27 Aug 2009

“Volatility derivatives are a class of derivative securities where the payoff explicitly depends on some measure of the volatility of an underlying asset. Prominent examples of these derivatives include variance swaps and VIX futures and options. We provide an overview of the current market for these derivatives. We also survey the early literature on the subject. Finally, we provide relatively simple proofs of some fundamental results related to variance swaps and volatility swaps.”

Full article (PDF): Link

 
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Posted in Implied volatility, Realized volatility

 

A Glitch in the VIX

30 Jun 2011

Article by: Adam Warner
Published by: InvestorPlace
Date: 24 Mar 2010

“If there’s one point I’ve tried to make more than any other, it’s that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a statistic, not a stock and, as such, it behaves differently than a stock. This being the case, it has quirks, one of which I call the ‘day of the week quirk.’

“This is the tendency of the VIX to look weaker on Fridays and stronger on Mondays, even when there has been no real change in the market’s assessment of volatility.”

Full article: Link

 
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Posted in Implied volatility

 
 
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